Recent simulations from MBFC’s 2024 Electoral College Polling Map have revealed a significant shift in the presidential race, showing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as the new frontrunner. For the first time since January, simulations have indicated a likely win for the Democratic candidate. Since then, Donald Trump has held a commanding lead, winning nearly 90% of the simulations.
Today’s simulation results show Harris winning in 61.22% of scenarios, with an average of 273 electoral votes compared to 265 for Trump. Overall, Harris holds a 73.50% chance of victory. This shift is attributed to Harris leading in critical swing states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The last simulation run with Joe Biden as the candidate showed that Trump consistently won the election over 90% of the time.
MBFC’s methodology combines recent poll data with 2020 election results, adjusting for margins of error and factoring in money raised and national momentum. This approach provides a detailed view of current electoral prospects. For detailed methodology, see MBFC’s 2024 Electoral College Polling Map methodology. Check back each day as there will be significant changes as new polling data becomes available.
Simulation charts and maps below:
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