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This page shows the Monte Carlo simulation data each time we run the model. The results are based on MBFC’s methodology for calculating the leader in each state and several other factors. The simulation is usually run daily or whenever there are consequential changes to the polling data/map. The data below are the results of 5000 election simulations. In other words, how many times did each candidate win the election in each simulation? Therefore, 100% would indicate that the candidate won 5000 out of 5000 times, etc. See the map at the bottom of the page.
Simulation Data for 04/28/2024 @ 08:00 am Eastern
| State | Winner | % Simulation Won | Trump Win Probability | 79.04% (+2.98) |
| Alabama | Trump | 100.00% | Biden Win Probability | 20.96% |
| Alaska | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Arizona | Trump | 91.64% | ||
| Arkansas | Trump | 100.00% | Trump Avg. Electoral Votes | Biden Avg. Electoral Votes |
| California | Biden | 100.00% | 283 | 255 |
| Colorado | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| Connecticut | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| Delaware | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| District of Columbia | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| Florida | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Georgia | Trump | 91.20% | ||
| Hawaii | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| Idaho | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Illinois | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| Indiana | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Iowa | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Kansas | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Kentucky | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Louisiana | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Maine | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| Maryland | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| Massachusetts | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| Michigan | Biden | 50.58% | ||
| Minnesota | Biden | 87.32% | ||
| Mississippi | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Missouri | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Montana | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Nebraska | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Nevada | Trump | 99.36% | ||
| New Hampshire | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| New Jersey | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| New Mexico | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| New York | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| North Carolina | Trump | 91.56% | ||
| North Dakota | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Ohio | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Oklahoma | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Oregon | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| Pennsylvania | Biden | 59.54% | ||
| Rhode Island | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| South Carolina | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| South Dakota | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Tennessee | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Texas | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Utah | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Vermont | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| Virginia | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| Washington | Biden | 100.00% | ||
| West Virginia | Trump | 100.00% | ||
| Wisconsin | Trump | 55.42% | ||
| Wyoming | Trump | 100.00% |
These results show the frequency with which each candidate wins in each state across the 5000 simulations.
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Last Updated on April 28, 2024 by Media Bias Fact Check