Claim by Donald Trump (R)
In a June 5, 2025 post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump claimed, “If this bill doesn’t pass, there will be a 68% tax increase,” referring to his proposed “Big Beautiful Bill,” which seeks to extend the expiring 2017 tax cuts.
Explanation
According to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, if the 2017 tax law were to expire, the average tax increase would be approximately 7.5%, not 68%. Their analysis found no income group—low, middle, or high earners—would see anything close to a 68% tax hike.
Even among the lowest-income taxpayers (those with incomes under $34,600), the increase would be approximately 12%. For those earning $67,000 or more, the increase would be about 7–8%.
The Tax Foundation, a center-right policy group, broadly agreed with the Tax Policy Center’s assessment. Garrett Watson, the Foundation’s policy director, stated that the 68% figure is significantly higher than any credible expert estimate.
It’s likely Trump misrepresented a different statistic: roughly 62–64% of taxpayers could see higher taxes if the law expires, according to both think tanks. However, this refers to the number of people who would see an increase, not the magnitude of the increase.
Conclusion
Fact or Fiction? Fiction. Independent tax analysts estimate average increases of 7.5% if the 2017 tax cuts expire, not 68% as Trump claimed.
Read More
Truth Social: Trump’s Post on Tax Hike
Tax Policy Center Analysis
Tax Foundation Report on the TCJA
PolitiFact: If the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Fails, Taxes Could Rise 7.5% — Not 68%
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Last Updated on June 22, 2025 by Media Bias Fact Check