The election for President is less than one week away and the polls have tightened significantly over the last week. There are many factors at play, but the two most significant reasons are most people have made a clear choice and also the FBI re-launching an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of E-mail as Secretary of State. It is not possible to determine which has more influence, but it is obvious that Trump is gaining and Clinton is declining. Before we get into the numbers I want to present a map that shows what the election would look like if held today using the Real Clear Politics Polling Averages. This map is assuming it is 100% accurate, which it most certainly is not. It does, however show the possible outcome.
As you can see, if the election were today Clinton would win by a very narrow margin. Real Clear Politics is still giving Clinton a 71% chance of winning the election, which is down from 83.7% just one week ago. One would expect this number to get closer to 50% if poll trending continues to favor Trump. Let’s take a look at the Swing States to see why the odds of winning are dropping for Clinton.
Florida: Latest polls have shown Trump taking the lead in Florida. His RCP Poll Average is currently +1, which is within the margins of error in all polls. Due to his lead continuing to increase, we will assume he narrowly wins Florida.
Ohio: Trump’s RCP Poll Average has climbed to +2 and a recent poll as of 11/1/16 from Remington shows Trump leading by +5. Ohio is moving from a Toss-Up to likely Trump as the numbers trend upward. Ohio seems like a very likely win for Trump.
North Carolina: One week ago Clinton was leading in NC by +2.5. As of today Trump has taken the lead at +0.7. NC is a tie at the moment, but a poll conducted by WRAL, a local media outlet, showed Trump up +7 as of 11/1/16. If these types of poll numbers continue Trump will likely win this state. Another factor in NC is minority turnout has been low in early voting thus far. The minority vote helped carry Obama in 2008 and kept him competitive in 2012. NC will likely go to Trump by November 8th.
Virginia: Clinton is holding on to +4.7 RCP Poll Average lead, however this lead was +6 one week ago. There is a trend toward Trump in this state, however with this type of lead it looks like Clinton will win the state, but it may be much closer than +4.7.
Colorado: There have been huge changes in Colorado over the last two weeks. Currently, Clinton is +2.4 by the RCP Poll Average, however two weeks ago she held an 8 point lead in the state and it looked like a lock. Colorado is now considered a Toss-Up state with Trump gaining quickly.
The Rest: All of the other Swing States are pretty much decided or considered a low factor in determining the winner. All of this could change over the next six days, but for the sake of this report we are leaving these states as decided.
Conclusion: Trump’s only real path to victory is through Colorado. Again, this should all be taken with a grain of salt as polls do change and are not always accurate. Plus there is always surprises on election day. What is obvious, is what once looked like a landslide victory for Clinton, has turned into a dead heat. I won’t speculate who will win, but it will be very close.
This is what the map looks like if Trump wins Colorado.
Source: Real Clear Politics